PIT beat NYI 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.1, PIT 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Justin Brazeau scored at 14:21 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 51% to 88%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:23 | PIT | Rickard RakellPP from Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 12:02 | NYI | Jonathan Drouin from Matthew Schaefer | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:04 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Mathew Barzal, Scott Mayfield | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 5:41 | PIT | Harrison Brunicke from Filip Hallander, Tommy Novak | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:58 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 19:19 | NYI | Maksim Shabanov from Simon Holmstrom | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 14:21 | PIT | Justin Brazeau from Evgeni Malkin, Anthony Mantha | 3–4 | 51% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Drouin L | 19:47 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.82 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 9:45 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.11 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:39 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.16 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 17:15 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 13:12 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 18:05 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:01 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.31 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:04 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 23:35 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:19 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 10:59 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:47 | −0.28 | +0.22 | −0.68 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:50 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:24 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:21 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:33 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:16 | −0.79 | +0.15 | −0.80 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 57:45 | −0.91 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Brunicke D | 12:43 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.76 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Justin Brazeau R | 11:22 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.03 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:30 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Hallander C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 15:21 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 22:45 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 12:21 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 20:53 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 16:12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:10 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:27 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:34 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 10:04 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 26:50 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 13:06 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:11 | 3 | −0.72 | +0.05 | −0.77 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:24 | +0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.