MTL beat DET 5–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oliver Kapanen scored at 12:43 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 64%. John Gibson allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:50 |  DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 10:14 |  MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Brendan Gallagher, Mike Matheson | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:43 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Alex Newhook, Ivan Demidov | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:53 | MTL | Mike Matheson from Nick Suzuki, Noah Dobson | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 5:19 | MTL | Alexandre Carrier from Arber Xhekaj, Brendan Gallagher | 4–1 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 17:12 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 5–1 | 97% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier D | 17:10 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.47 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 15:50 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 20:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.41 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:52 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 15:26 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 14:10 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:04 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 15:46 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 15:37 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 22:41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 20:46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 14:30 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:36 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 13:45 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:03 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.29 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +2.08 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmer Soderblom L | 10:43 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 14:47 | +0.15 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:23 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 14:34 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 22:34 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:14 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 16:03 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 16:55 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:53 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 13:33 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 15:04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:52 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 12:22 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 22:51 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 14:41 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 19:02 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.38 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 22:37 | +0.57 |
| John Gibson G | 37:12 | −3.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.