CGY beat EDM 4–3 in a shootout. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Blake Coleman scored at 0:40 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 23% to 48%. Dustin Wolf saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:53 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:11 | EDM | Andrew Mangiapane from Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 8:32 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from David Tomasek, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 12:40 |  CGY | Matvei Gridin from Nazem Kadri, Matt Coronato | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P2 14:47 | CGY | Connor ZaryPP from Adam Klapka | 2–3 | 11% → 25% |
| P3 0:40 | CGY | Blake Coleman unassisted | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman L | 18:21 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.06 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 24:02 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.04 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +1.01 | |
| Connor Zary C | 14:22 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 17:18 | +0.43 | +0.15 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.79 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 15:25 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 12:12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 16:46 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:18 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 14:00 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 26:01 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:38 | −0.22 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 20:30 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 24:42 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 8:12 | −0.40 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 12:31 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 18:46 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 12:47 | −0.70 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:20 | −0.80 | −0.49 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 64:25 | +3.36 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:40 | 1 | 1 | +1.81 | +0.69 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.79 |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:47 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.11 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:45 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 26:21 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.67 | −0.80 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 13:04 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 16:46 | +0.03 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alec Regula D | 15:03 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 15:28 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:23 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 20:44 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:12 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Philp C | 10:58 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:56 | 1 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.55 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.49 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 28:42 | −0.33 | +0.63 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 10:43 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:26 | −0.59 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 12:32 | −0.68 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| David Tomasek R | 13:20 | 1 | −1.12 | +0.14 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 65:00 | +0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.