CBJ beat NYI 6–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.1, CBJ 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cole Sillinger scored at 2:21 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Marcus Hogberg allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:21 |  CBJ | Cole Sillinger unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:43 | CBJ | Dante Fabbro from Jordan Harris | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 10:09 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Zach Werenski, Cole Sillinger | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 15:14 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Justin Danforth, Erik Gudbranson | 0–4 | 97% → 100% |
| P2 17:27 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 14:48 | NYI | Hudson Fasching from Casey Cizikas | 1–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 18:37 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from James van Riemsdyk | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Fasching R | 14:55 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.11 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:35 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 13:32 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 13:34 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:11 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 17:44 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 19:23 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:56 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:30 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 18:17 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 12:22 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 23:19 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:06 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 14:34 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:58 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:08 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Anders Lee C | 17:32 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:24 | −0.53 | −0.09 | −0.42 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 60:00 | −3.31 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Fabbro D | 20:22 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.10 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:18 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:09 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.07 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:35 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 20:52 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:13 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 18:26 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:56 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Williams R | 11:09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:34 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 16:41 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 18:08 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 12:51 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 15:16 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 16:56 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.52 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | +1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.