OTT beat CAR 7–5. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Batherson scored on the power play at 13:38 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 87%. Frederik Andersen allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:55 |  OTT | Adam Gaudette from Nick Cousins | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:35 | OTT | Dylan CozensPP from Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P1 17:22 | OTT | Shane Pinto from Michael Amadio, Ridly Greig | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P1 17:33 |  CAR | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Andrei Svechnikov, Taylor Hall | 1–3 | 7% → 15% |
| P1 19:18 | CAR | Skyler Brind'Amour from William Carrier, Scott Morrow | 2–3 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 0:50 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Logan Stankoven, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–3 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:05 | CAR | Jack Roslovic unassisted | 4–3 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:32 | CAR | Tyson Jost from Taylor Hall | 5–3 | 67% → 83% |
| P3 4:17 | OTT | Adam Gaudette from Tim Stützle | 5–4 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 10:01 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Fabian Zetterlund, Dylan Cozens | 5–5 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 13:38 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens | 5–6 | 53% → 87% |
| P3 18:48 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Jake Sanderson, Tyler Kleven | 5–7 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyler Brind'Amour C | 17:42 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.11 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.12 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 13:48 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.20 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.06 | +0.66 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Scott Morrow D | 17:26 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 14:26 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 14:51 | +0.04 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 9:57 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 0:24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 17:43 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 20:46 | −0.14 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:14 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:54 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 14:36 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Domenick Fensore D | 20:55 | −0.34 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:09 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 17:20 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | −3.04 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gaudette R | 17:00 | 2 | +1.57 | −0.11 | +1.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 19:51 | 2 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.29 | +1.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Tim Stützle C | 17:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.19 | +0.27 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.03 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:00 | 1 | 2 | +0.84 | +0.19 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Shane Pinto C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.32 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 13:02 | +0.29 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 13:34 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 19:48 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:48 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:00 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 14:31 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 20:08 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 28:21 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 13:07 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Perron L | 13:56 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:59 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 15:36 | −0.31 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 10:37 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 59:22 | −1.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.