TOR beat DET 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (DET 2.4, TOR 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Scott Laughton scored at 0:56 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cam Talbot allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:53 |  TOR | Auston Matthews from Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:19 | DET | Austin Watson from Justin Holl | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:16 | DET | Justin Holl from Marco Kasper, Vladimir Tarasenko | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:50 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane | 3–1 | 68% → 82% |
| P3 3:43 | TOR | Philippe Myers from Steven Lorentz, Calle Jarnkrok | 3–2 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 19:58 | TOR | Chris TanevPP from Mitch Marner, Pontus Holmberg | 3–3 | 3% → 52% |
| OT 0:56 | TOR | Scott Laughton from Dakota Mermis, Matthew Knies | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Holl D | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.15 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:12 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:35 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:05 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 14:39 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:27 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 12:47 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:26 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 19:56 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 24:21 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 16:36 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 5:45 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 15:22 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 15:03 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:45 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 16:37 | 1 | −0.83 | +0.07 | −0.65 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:56 | −1.95 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev D | 16:07 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.01 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 15:36 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.09 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 15:47 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.09 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philippe Myers D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.36 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 15:55 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 14:19 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:20 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 20:39 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 15:14 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:33 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:16 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:15 | −0.15 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 16:36 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 15:39 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:44 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 16:28 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:03 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.13 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 16:22 | −0.83 | −0.28 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 59:18 | +0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.