BUF beat PHI 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.5, BUF 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Tuch scored at 4:35 of the first, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 69%. James Reimer allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:35 |  BUF | Alex Tuch from Jason Zucker, Jacob Bernard-Docker | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:49 | BUF | Peyton KrebsSH from Alex Tuch, Connor Clifton | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 15:09 | PHI | Matvei MichkovPP from Tyson Foerster, Sean Couturier | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 16:11 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Ryan McLeod, JJ Peterka | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 1:24 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 7:11 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny | 2–4 | 4% → 13% |
| P3 0:15 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Noah Cates, Bobby Brink | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 19:12 | BUF | Ryan McLeodEN unassisted | 3–5 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 19:41 | PHI | Bobby BrinkPP from Matvei Michkov, Ryan Poehling | 4–5 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov R | 20:43 | 2 | 1 | +1.20 | −0.01 | +1.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Bobby Brink R | 16:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.09 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyson Foerster R | 18:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.13 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Seeler D | 19:49 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 21:20 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 21:04 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Kaplan R | 12:12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 15:08 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:39 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 10:58 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cam York D | 19:23 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 20:30 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 15:33 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 17:00 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 20:15 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 13:14 | −0.52 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Kolosov G | 58:49 | −0.92 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.08 | +0.69 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Jack Quinn R | 16:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.54 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 14:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:19 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:45 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:48 | +0.10 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 15:13 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 18:19 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 13:55 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jiri Kulich C | 17:36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 19:51 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 19:40 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:23 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:36 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 8:03 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 16:39 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 9:16 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 19:46 | 1 | 2 | −0.60 | +0.13 | −0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.