MTL beat CAR 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 2.8, MTL 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 16:22 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:50 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:56 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Sean Walker, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 16:22 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Alexandre Carrier | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:48 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson | 1–3 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 14:10 | CAR | Tyson Jost from Bradly Nadeau, Dmitry Orlov | 2–3 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 18:05 | MTL | Jake EvansEN unassisted | 2–4 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 17:54 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.18 | +0.76 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:12 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 15:27 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Morrow D | 17:37 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 11:13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:15 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:16 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Carrier L | 15:37 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 17:59 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:13 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:35 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Domenick Fensore D | 17:13 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Skyler Brind'Amour C | 15:28 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:23 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 21:18 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.11 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:34 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 13:01 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.21 | −0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:44 | −0.38 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiden Guhle D | 23:39 | 2 | +1.68 | −0.03 | +1.72 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Joel Armia R | 16:21 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 9:37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 11:04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:09 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 12:00 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:50 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 18:16 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 26:07 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:11 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 11:56 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 10:29 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:23 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 12:23 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 15:57 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 15:29 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.54 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.