LAK beat SEA 6–5. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Warren Foegele scored at 16:05 of the second, moving LAK’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Joey Daccord allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:14 | LAK | Samuel Helenius from Vladislav Gavrikov, Jordan Spence | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 16:23 | LAK | Alex TurcottePP from Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 5:26 |  SEA | Tye KartyeSH unassisted | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 13:24 | SEA | Brandon MontourPP from Andre Burakovsky, Kaapo Kakko | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:05 | LAK | Warren Foegele from Phillip Danault, Vladislav Gavrikov | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:17 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Kevin Fiala, Jeff Malott | 4–2 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 1:41 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Alex Turcotte, Andrei Kuzmenko | 5–2 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 2:38 | LAK | Samuel Helenius from Jacob Moverare, Trevor Lewis | 6–2 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 5:12 | SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Jamie Oleksiak, Ville Ottavainen | 6–3 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 13:34 | SEA | Matty BeniersPP from Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann | 6–4 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 19:30 | SEA | Eeli TolvanenPP from Shane Wright, Vince Dunn | 6–5 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Helenius C | 13:49 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.09 | +1.53 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Turcotte C | 14:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Alex Laferriere R | 16:41 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 17:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.11 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Warren Foegele L | 15:43 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.09 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 20:30 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:23 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Malott L | 13:51 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Moverare D | 20:15 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 16:27 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 11:22 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 25:10 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Akil Thomas C | 11:45 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 24:01 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 15:55 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:42 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 12:26 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 59:41 | −1.42 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Kartye L | 10:23 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.08 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:24 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.14 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 24:06 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:41 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.12 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.10 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:44 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:40 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:08 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 18:58 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Ottavainen D | 14:24 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 17:45 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 19:25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 15:33 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:00 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| John Hayden C | 9:04 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:00 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:39 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 22:15 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.02 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 56:37 | −3.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.