MIN beat ANA 3–2 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored at 4:42 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:47 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Mats Zuccarello, Jake Middleton | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:48 |  ANA | Alex Killorn from Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 8:45 | ANA | Sam Colangelo from Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras | 2–1 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 19:38 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello | 2–2 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 4:42 | MIN | Matt Boldy from Marcus Johansson, Jonas Brodin | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Colangelo R | 16:38 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.08 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:56 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.10 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 11:16 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:50 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 6:24 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 25:36 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:40 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 8:54 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 29:15 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:51 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 16:27 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:23 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 17:34 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 20:59 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:05 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:00 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.07 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 64:42 | +0.56 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.18 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matt Boldy L | 24:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.10 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marco Rossi C | 17:41 | +0.43 | +0.30 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 29:35 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:59 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 9:46 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 10:38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 8:33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:18 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 10:22 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 8:36 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:21 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:44 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:24 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:47 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:00 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 28:17 | −0.47 | −0.06 | −0.44 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 4:42 | +0.89 |
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:44 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.