CHI beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.2 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Frank Nazar scored at 0:48 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anton Forsberg allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:28 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Ryan Donato, Kevin Korchinski | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:13 | CHI | Joe Veleno from Oliver Moore, Nick Foligno | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 6:56 |  OTT | Nick Cousins from Dennis Gilbert, Nikolas Matinpalo | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P2 1:19 | OTT | Thomas ChabotPP from Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:24 | CHI | Connor BedardPP from Tyler Bertuzzi, Sam Rinzel | 3–2 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 15:06 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Dylan Cozens | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 0:48 | CHI | Frank Nazar from Connor Bedard | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard C | 19:04 | 2 | 1 | +1.37 | −0.14 | +1.53 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Frank Nazar C | 18:21 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.10 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 13:25 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.10 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Kevin Korchinski D | 15:44 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 13:10 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 18:07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 13:09 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 20:38 | −0.04 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:05 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 12:01 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 13:29 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:09 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 18:54 | −0.23 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 15:57 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 20:21 | −0.25 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 23:49 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Landon Slaggert L | 13:37 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:48 | +0.43 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 16:52 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.16 | +0.69 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:20 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.18 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 10:43 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.00 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:12 | +0.34 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 13:56 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.07 | |
| David Perron L | 12:04 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 14:06 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:40 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 18:56 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 21:18 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 17:38 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 22:36 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:32 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 15:09 | −0.14 | +0.17 | −0.50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 9:56 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Angus Crookshank C | 12:22 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:55 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:48 | −2.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.