UTA beat NSH 7–3. Expected goals were close to even (UTA 3.0, NSH 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nick Bjugstad scored at 18:21 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Juuse Saros allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:10 |  NSH | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Filip Forsberg | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 12:30 |  UTA | Michael Kesselring from Ian Cole, Alexander Kerfoot | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:21 | UTA | Nick Bjugstad from Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Stenlund | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:03 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Clayton Keller | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 4:13 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller | 4–1 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 11:01 | NSH | Luke Evangelista from Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei | 4–2 | 5% → 15% |
| P2 14:20 | NSH | Michael Bunting from Matthew Wood, Justin Barron | 4–3 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 12:05 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Logan Cooley, Michael Kesselring | 5–3 | 82% → 97% |
| P3 18:13 | UTA | Clayton KellerEN from Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:35 | UTA | Kevin Stenlund from Olli Maatta, Alexander Kerfoot | 7–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 15:56 | 1 | 2 | +0.92 | −0.02 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:42 | 2 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.55 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:24 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.09 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.08 | +0.35 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.12 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:09 | 3 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 20:37 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 17:56 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:24 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 13:32 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 19:09 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 12:07 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:23 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:29 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 14:34 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 11:39 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:54 | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Villalta G | 60:00 | +0.19 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Luke Evangelista R | 14:12 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 15:20 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 15:31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 21:46 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 13:14 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 15:17 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 9:09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 15:37 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:16 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 15:49 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 16:35 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 13:59 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:51 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:50 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 69:39 | −2.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.