COL beat ANA 4–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Charlie Coyle scored at 17:51 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 50% to 92%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:52 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Nikita Nesterenko, Troy Terry | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 7:35 | ANA | Sam Colangelo from Alex Killorn, Frank Vatrano | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 10:05 | COL | Wyatt Aamodt from Martin Necas, Jack Drury | 1–2 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 14:34 | COL | Jack DruryPP from Sam Malinski, Charlie Coyle | 2–2 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 17:51 | COL | Charlie Coyle from Jimmy Vesey, Logan O'Connor | 3–2 | 50% → 92% |
| P3 19:12 | COL | Erik JohnsonEN from Charlie Coyle | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Aamodt D | 19:05 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 19:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.13 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:52 | 1 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.08 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Martin Necas C | 21:12 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:07 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:22 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:34 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jere Innala L | 9:44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 14:32 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 10:53 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 14:39 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 19:06 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 14:58 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Tynan C | 9:09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 20:47 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 16:56 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 17:55 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 69:47 | −0.36 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.04 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.05 | |
| Sam Colangelo R | 10:17 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 21:31 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 12:23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:26 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:39 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:03 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:46 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:45 | −0.12 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:45 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 15:31 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 15:41 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:16 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 13:39 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:27 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 17:56 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 69:27 | −0.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.