OTT beat PHI 4–3 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tim Stützle scored on the power play at 1:40 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Ivan Fedotov allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:43 | PHI | Nicolas Deslauriers from Cam York, Garnet Hathaway | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 12:36 |  OTT | Tim Stützle from Thomas Chabot, Travis Hamonic | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 17:17 | PHI | Noah Cates from Emil Andrae, Bobby Brink | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 4:41 | OTT | Fabian Zetterlund from Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 7:33 | PHI | Garnet Hathaway from Nick Seeler | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 12:54 | OTT | Thomas Chabot from Angus Crookshank, Tim Stützle | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 1:40 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.04 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Noah Cates L | 17:16 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 13:17 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.05 | +0.50 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 23:32 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Pelletier L | 13:28 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 20:23 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 13:32 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 13:22 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 16:48 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karsen Dorwart L | 12:15 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 17:31 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 15:22 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:26 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:50 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 15:42 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 16:20 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.30 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 61:40 | −2.03 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 20:30 | 2 | 1 | +1.62 | −0.05 | +1.50 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 20:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | −0.03 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:41 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.14 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Angus Crookshank C | 11:25 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Artem Zub D | 19:34 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:37 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:23 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:54 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 19:28 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Highmore C | 11:43 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 10:38 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 18:16 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:08 | −0.16 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 18:39 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 14:47 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:19 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 13:28 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 13:18 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 61:40 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.