VGK beat NSH 5–3. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noah Hanifin scored at 18:05 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Adin Hill allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:11 | NSH | Jordan Oesterle from Luke Evangelista, Michael Bunting | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 4:02 | VGK | Brett Howden from Brayden McNabb, Tanner Pearson | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 5:36 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Keegan Kolesar, Shea Theodore | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 11:09 | VGK | Alexander HoltzPP from William Karlsson, Reilly Smith | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P3 1:02 | NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Zachary L'Heureux, Justin Barron | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 4:58 | NSH | Marc Del Gaizo from Andreas Englund, Luke Evangelista | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 18:05 | VGK | Noah Hanifin from Zach Whitecloud, Reilly Smith | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:58 | VGK | Ivan BarbashevEN from Nicolas Roy, Brett Howden | 3–5 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 14:43 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 22:23 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:01 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.19 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 22:17 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 13:01 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 14:07 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 14:24 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 15:26 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:44 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:44 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 9:12 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 22:55 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 10:11 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 12:08 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:50 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 22:51 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:05 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 17:34 | −0.63 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 68:02 | −1.18 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Roy C | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.28 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.08 |
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:39 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.27 | +0.89 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 11:10 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.08 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:43 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 16:28 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:11 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:42 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:37 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 15:57 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:23 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 13:52 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 16:08 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:30 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:52 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 11:51 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.08 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.