PHI beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored on the power play at 18:59 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 5% to 50%. Samuel Ersson saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:28 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Sean Couturier, Matvei Michkov | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 10:54 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Noah Dobson, Tony DeAngelo | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 17:58 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Bo Horvat, Scott Mayfield | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 4:29 | PHI | Jakob Pelletier from Owen Tippett, Ryan Poehling | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 10:34 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Owen Tippett, Noah Cates | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 18:59 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Tony DeAngelo, Anders Lee | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 15:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.10 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Noah Dobson D | 22:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 11:45 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:27 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 22:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.32 |
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:33 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:36 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 11:55 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:16 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 19:48 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 15:32 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:23 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:39 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:08 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:11 | −0.60 | +0.21 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 28:40 | 2 | −0.61 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 14:11 | −0.86 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.39 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 19:23 | −1.04 | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 72:17 | −0.12 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 21:34 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.12 | +1.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 16:03 | +0.91 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 11:35 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.04 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 17:37 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Karsen Dorwart L | 12:43 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:46 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 13:59 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:37 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 18:12 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 23:40 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:44 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 20:24 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 16:28 | −0.39 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:35 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.13 | −0.39 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 23:04 | −0.59 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 14:33 | 2 | −0.64 | +0.12 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 21:56 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.06 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 74:20 | +3.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.