EDM beat SJS 4–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Corey Perry scored on the power play at 7:32 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:47 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Connor McDavid, Adam Henrique | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:41 | EDM | Ty Emberson from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 17:13 | SJS | Will Smith from Nikolai Kovalenko | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 5:44 | SJS | Henry Thrun from William Eklund | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 7:32 | EDM | Corey PerryPP from Connor McDavid, Adam Henrique | 2–3 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 19:34 | EDM | Connor BrownEN from Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith C | 20:04 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.20 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 22:48 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.11 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 24:35 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:45 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 14:25 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:47 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 15:14 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Lund C | 11:37 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 12:47 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 21:31 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 12:23 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:29 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 18:46 | −0.23 | +0.24 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 22:03 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:46 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:25 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:06 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:40 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.13 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Georgii Romanov G | 67:48 | +0.89 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Emberson D | 18:17 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.02 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 28:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.18 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.40 | +0.00 |
| Corey Perry R | 17:54 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.03 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 24:31 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:44 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 16:12 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Philp C | 11:43 | −0.00 | +0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:23 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 18:17 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 3:07 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:04 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Jones L | 9:36 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:14 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 9:33 | −0.29 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 17:26 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:37 | 4 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.38 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Connor Brown R | 19:01 | 1 | −0.92 | −0.14 | −0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 67:56 | +0.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.