PIT beat NJD 4–2. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored on the power play at 13:21 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 50% to 84%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:15 |  NJD | Erik Haula from Dawson Mercer, Brett Pesce | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:17 | NJD | Ondrej Palat from Cody Glass, Seamus Casey | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 16:10 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin unassisted | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 1:05 | PIT | Valtteri PuustinenPP from Evgeni Malkin, Matt Grzelcyk | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 13:21 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Bryan Rust, Matt Grzelcyk | 3–2 | 50% → 84% |
| P3 18:24 | PIT | Bryan RustEN from Sidney Crosby, Ville Koivunen | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 12:00 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.27 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.31 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.06 | +0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.04 |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 12:11 | +0.38 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 14:31 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:06 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:55 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:20 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:24 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| Vasily Ponomarev C | 12:10 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 13:51 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 18:02 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 15:10 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 19:23 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 12:17 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 17:59 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:51 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 69:53 | +0.88 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:36 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.06 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 14:46 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Timo Meier R | 19:57 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:34 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:52 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seamus Casey D | 14:42 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:17 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 11:31 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 19:59 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:01 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 11:58 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:10 | −0.29 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:08 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cody Glass C | 13:20 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 22:11 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 17:08 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 23:54 | −0.62 | −0.11 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 67:09 | −0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.