NSH beat UTA 4–3 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 5:42 of the third, moving UTA’s win probability from 24% to 52%. Juuse Saros saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:49 | UTA | Nick Bjugstad from Alexander Kerfoot | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 13:54 | UTA | Josh Doan from Jack McBain, Nick DeSimone | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 17:21 | NSH | Nick BlankenburgPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 10% → 24% |
| P3 1:19 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Brady Skjei, Steven Stamkos | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 3:17 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Michael Bunting | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 5:42 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:10 | 1 | +1.59 | −0.25 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 24:41 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.30 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.02 | +0.47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.32 |
| Jakub Vrana L | 12:25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 15:30 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:34 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 14:57 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 19:15 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 13:45 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 12:15 | −0.22 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 17:51 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.15 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 25:06 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 9:57 | −0.53 | −0.08 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 15:47 | −0.54 | −0.57 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:05 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 27:24 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:46 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:59 | +3.35 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bjugstad C | 10:23 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.04 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 13:13 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.05 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 28:15 | +0.37 | +0.34 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:31 | +0.16 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.32 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 11:06 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 16:08 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 15:26 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.49 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 16:24 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 27:23 | −0.11 | +0.38 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 21:56 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.40 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:26 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 22:06 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.42 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:49 | −0.38 | +0.21 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:41 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.51 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:04 | −0.50 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 19:54 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.08 | −0.42 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 65:00 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.