NYR beat NYI 9–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mika Zibanejad scored at 3:17 of the first, moving NYR’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Marcus Hogberg allowed 5.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:17 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from J.T. Miller, Will Cuylle | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 12:49 | NYR | Will Cuylle from Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 13:51 | NYR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox | 3–0 | 79% → 91% |
| P1 19:15 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox | 4–0 | 92% → 99% |
| P2 8:19 | NYR | Juuso Parssinen from Alexis Lafrenière | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 19:06 | NYI | Maxim TsyplakovPP from Simon Holmstrom, Adam Pelech | 5–1 | 1% → 1% |
| P3 7:54 | NYR | Brett Berard from Matt Rempe, Sam Carrick | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 10:52 | NYI | Hudson Fasching from Casey Cizikas, Pierre Engvall | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 12:37 | NYR | Brett Berard from Sam Carrick, K'Andre Miller | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:54 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Adam Fox, Juuso Parssinen | 8–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:51 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Juuso Parssinen | 9–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 16:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.61 | −0.00 | +1.57 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brett Berard L | 12:37 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.01 | +1.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 13:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 16:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.54 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Will Cuylle L | 15:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.04 |
| Adam Fox D | 19:33 | 3 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 16:58 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 21:48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 14:38 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 18:37 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 14:52 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Rempe C | 13:05 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Will Borgen D | 18:20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 21:00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 12:57 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:39 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +1.65 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 14:46 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.58 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 14:35 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:04 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:28 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 14:56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:40 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 23:37 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 18:13 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:27 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 17:39 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:40 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 19:57 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:10 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 16:44 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 13:44 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:13 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 14:36 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.55 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Lennox G | 4:43 | −0.90 |
| Marcus Hogberg G | 62:56 | −5.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.