CBJ beat BUF 3–2. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Boone Jenner scored on the power play at 6:42 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 81%. Jet Greaves saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:54 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Ryan McLeod, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:39 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 19:51 | CBJ | James van Riemsdyk from Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P3 4:00 | CBJ | Zachary Aston-Reese from Erik Gudbranson | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:42 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP from Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan | 2–3 | 53% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.30 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| JJ Peterka R | 16:56 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.24 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:00 | +0.11 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 10:34 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 16:36 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.30 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 16:41 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:52 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:16 | +0.03 | +0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:09 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:45 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:57 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:11 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:20 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:51 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:56 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:42 | −0.47 | +0.08 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 17:27 | −0.56 | +0.09 | −0.68 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 17:25 | 1 | −0.76 | +0.17 | −0.93 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 58:08 | −0.07 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:57 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.13 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:55 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.20 | +0.40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:46 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:58 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 18:26 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 4:14 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:34 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:42 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:51 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:57 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 13:19 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 24:20 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 14:58 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:29 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 27:36 | −0.36 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:48 | −0.37 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:23 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | +2.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.