ANA beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cutter Gauthier scored at 1:11 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Dustin Wolf allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:18 |  CGY | Mikael Backlund from MacKenzie Weegar, Joel Hanley | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 11:49 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Oliver Kylington | 1–1 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 13:44 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Joel Farabee, Joel Hanley | 2–1 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 15:18 | CGY | Matt Coronato from Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman | 3–1 | 87% → 99% |
| P3 16:03 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Olen Zellweger, Ryan Strome | 3–2 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 16:11 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Leo Carlsson, Alex Killorn | 3–3 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 1:11 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Leo Carlsson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Coronato R | 22:41 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.12 | +0.54 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.23 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 |
| Joel Hanley D | 20:11 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 23:23 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.59 | +0.03 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 10:33 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:35 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 10:38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 27:53 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 23:17 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:44 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:33 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 11:16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 16:51 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 14:38 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 19:53 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:22 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 9:40 | −0.32 | +0.11 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 61:11 | −2.11 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:56 | 2 | +1.36 | +0.16 | +1.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:22 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 14:15 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.22 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Troy Terry R | 20:55 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:28 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 6:17 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:50 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 16:51 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:58 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.06 | |
| Sam Colangelo R | 11:22 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:27 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:33 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 8:44 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 23:06 | −0.32 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:21 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:30 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 24:57 | −0.60 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 61:11 | +0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.