EDM beat STL 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.9, EDM 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Connor Brown scored at 19:39 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:44 | STL | Ryan SuterSH from Pavel Buchnevich, Tyler Tucker | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P2 1:30 |  EDM | Connor Brown from Connor McDavid | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 12:39 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 0:14 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 1:41 | EDM | Viktor ArvidssonPP from Brett Kulak, Darnell Nurse | 2–3 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 5:25 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 19:39 | EDM | Connor Brown from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Suter D | 16:33 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:45 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | +0.12 | +0.60 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 22:17 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.23 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 22:22 | +0.04 | +0.23 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:49 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:45 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:21 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 21:21 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 10:54 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 16:10 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 18:35 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:41 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:54 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 14:30 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 8:09 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:35 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 68:48 | −1.84 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Brown R | 19:34 | 2 | +1.46 | +0.07 | +1.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:37 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 18:43 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.22 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Corey Perry R | 12:42 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 28:15 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:04 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:48 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Noah Philp C | 8:43 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 10:03 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 9:39 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:11 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 28:06 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 29:04 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 17:00 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:58 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:44 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 20:35 | 3 | −0.31 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.12 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 68:51 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.