VAN beat DAL 6–5 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 3.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kiefer Sherwood scored at 3:44 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Casey DeSmith allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:48 |  DAL | Mikko RantanenPP from Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 18:01 | DAL | Mason MarchmentPP from Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 7:28 | DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 0:17 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes | 1–3 | 2% → 8% |
| P3 4:39 | VAN | Victor ManciniPP from Aatu Räty, Linus Karlsson | 2–3 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 17:15 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Jason Robertson, Cody Ceci | 2–4 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 17:39 | DAL | Mikael GranlundEN from Esa Lindell, Matt Duchene | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:00 | VAN | Aatu Räty from Marcus Pettersson | 3–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:30 | VAN | Pius SuterPP from Conor Garland, Filip Hronek | 4–5 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 19:53 | VAN | Pius SuterPP from Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes | 5–5 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 3:44 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Conor Garland | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pius Suter C | 21:31 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.16 | +1.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 12:54 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.17 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 |
| Victor Mancini D | 15:12 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:32 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.19 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:22 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.07 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 22:16 | 3 | +0.14 | +0.21 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 31:28 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 14:06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 23:13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 14:58 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:41 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 16:36 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 11:11 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:11 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 24:10 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.21 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Max Sasson C | 12:36 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:56 | −0.50 | +0.08 | −0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 10:40 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.03 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 62:43 | +0.10 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavrik Bourque C | 12:34 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.08 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 16:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.12 | +0.43 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Mason Marchment L | 13:12 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 25:34 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:45 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.67 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 21:09 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 17:49 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:02 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 14:24 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:57 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 14:20 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 11:16 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 16:04 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 19:43 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 14:47 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 14:12 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:20 | 1 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Thomas Harley D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.34 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 63:44 | −1.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.