NSH beat NYI 7–6 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.3, NSH 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Fedor Svechkov scored at 1:56 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Justus Annunen allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:16 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Ryan Pulock, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:44 |  NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Michael Bunting, Luke Evangelista | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 11:45 | NSH | Filip Forsberg unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:12 | NYI | Anders Lee from Bo Horvat, Adam Pelech | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:36 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Maxim Tsyplakov | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:24 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Nick Blankenburg, Jonathan Marchessault | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:09 | NYI | Maxim Tsyplakov from Simon Holmstrom, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 4–3 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:25 | NSH | Michael McCarron from Brady Skjei, Jonathan Marchessault | 4–4 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 15:21 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri unassisted | 5–4 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 16:19 | NYI | Scott MayfieldSH from Simon Holmstrom, Alexander Romanov | 6–4 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 17:53 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg | 6–5 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 19:20 | NSH | Michael BuntingPP from Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei | 6–6 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 1:56 | NSH | Fedor Svechkov from Brady Skjei, Steven Stamkos | 6–7 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:33 | 2 | 2 | +1.69 | +0.11 | +1.60 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 14:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.28 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:49 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.18 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:38 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 17:46 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 23:33 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 21:36 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 9:57 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 10:33 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:44 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:34 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 19:47 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:37 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:46 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:41 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 14:25 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:59 | 3 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:21 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 32:54 | −1.84 |
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | −1.90 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:27 | 2 | 2 | +1.29 | −0.20 | +1.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.05 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 13:57 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.19 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:36 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.14 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:14 | 3 | +0.21 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 18:11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 12:48 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 11:01 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 20:46 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 15:45 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 13:31 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 14:11 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 16:57 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:20 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:32 | 3 | −0.56 | −0.04 | −0.51 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 71:53 | −3.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.