BOS beat NJD 7–2. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.0, NJD 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt scored at 19:07 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 72% to 89%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 5.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:38 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Morgan Geekie | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:24 | BOS | Michael Callahan from Parker Wotherspoon, David Pastrnak | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 3:45 | BOS | Jakub Lauko unassisted | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 13:51 |  NJD | Stefan NoesenPP from Daniel Sprong, Nico Hischier | 3–1 | 4% → 14% |
| P2 14:10 | NJD | Timo Meier from Erik Haula | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 19:07 | BOS | Casey Mittelstadt from Fabian Lysell, Henri Jokiharju | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 4:58 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov | 5–2 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 6:55 | BOS | Fraser Minten from Vinni Lettieri, Andrew Peeke | 6–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 10:50 | BOS | Cole Koepke unassisted | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 17:44 | 1 | 2 | +1.30 | +0.02 | +0.82 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:22 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Michael Callahan D | 18:11 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.07 | +0.92 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Lauko C | 11:57 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.08 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Koepke L | 16:02 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:04 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 14:52 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:26 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 18:36 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Lysell R | 15:25 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:10 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 21:33 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 14:15 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| John Beecher C | 13:20 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:51 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | +0.01 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.08 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seamus Casey D | 17:36 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 19:23 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 12:35 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 21:41 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:44 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 12:42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 15:07 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:41 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:56 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Dowling C | 11:15 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 21:44 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 12:21 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:32 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 19:29 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:31 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 9:10 | +0.08 |
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:07 | −5.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.