CGY beat SJS 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.8, SJS 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau scored on the power play at 11:00 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 50% to 81%. Dustin Wolf saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:35 | SJS | Will Smith from Nikolai Kovalenko, Macklin Celebrini | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 8:12 |  CGY | Adam Klapka from Nazem Kadri, Kevin Bahl | 1–1 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 11:00 | CGY | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Morgan Frost, MacKenzie Weegar | 2–1 | 50% → 81% |
| P3 15:30 | CGY | Matt Coronato unassisted | 3–1 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 18:01 | SJS | Will SmithPP from Timothy Liljegren, Macklin Celebrini | 3–2 | 0% → 7% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:03 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.28 | +0.60 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 10:01 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.05 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 17:56 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.09 | +0.73 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 24:55 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 12:23 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:04 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:39 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:41 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 15:18 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:44 | −0.11 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:04 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:40 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:04 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.28 | −0.43 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:27 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 16:54 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 19:53 | −0.33 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 8:41 | −0.41 | +0.05 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | +1.20 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith C | 19:25 | 2 | +1.55 | −0.04 | +1.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 11:03 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 9:58 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 15:39 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Thompson D | 15:13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Lund C | 12:12 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:23 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 24:19 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 9:50 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 27:05 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 10:39 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:25 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 19:32 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 9:23 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 18:37 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 22:08 | −0.54 | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 21:07 | 2 | −0.67 | −0.04 | −0.58 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| William Eklund L | 22:32 | −0.74 | −0.15 | −0.59 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Georgii Romanov G | 56:17 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.