PIT beat DAL 5–3. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Blake Lizotte scored at 18:17 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 50% to 93%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:16 |  PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:43 |  DAL | Evgenii Dadonov from Oskar Bäck, Lian Bichsel | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 12:36 | DAL | Evgenii DadonovPP from Matt Duchene, Mathew Dumba | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 0:20 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Rutger McGroarty | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 3:11 | DAL | Evgenii Dadonov from Thomas Harley, Ilya Lyubushkin | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 8:49 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 18:17 | PIT | Blake Lizotte from Danton Heinen | 4–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 18:45 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyEN from Conor Timmins | 5–3 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:29 | 3 | 1 | +1.56 | +0.21 | +1.27 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:34 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.04 | +0.62 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:09 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.18 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rutger McGroarty R | 17:33 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ville Koivunen R | 17:57 | +0.21 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:30 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 13:08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 24:04 | −0.06 | +0.48 | −0.56 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 15:26 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:24 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 15:32 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:22 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 7:09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:47 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 6:39 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 14:58 | −0.22 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 19:43 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:55 | −0.59 | +0.07 | −0.67 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | −0.47 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:09 | 3 | +2.00 | +0.00 | +2.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 9:33 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 12:30 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 17:02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 13:43 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 16:46 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 14:54 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 18:01 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 17:37 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 16:06 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 24:15 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:15 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:34 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 14:21 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:31 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 10:47 | −0.45 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 59:40 | +0.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.