STL beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 2.7, STL 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Robert Thomas scored on the power play at 2:12 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Tristan Jarry allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:32 |  PIT | Bryan Rust from Rutger McGroarty | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:39 |  STL | Jake Neighbours from Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 4:22 | PIT | Connor Dewar from Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:48 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Nathan Walker | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:05 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Cam Fowler | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 5:56 | STL | Jake Neighbours from Jimmy Snuggerud, Oskar Sundqvist | 2–4 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 11:15 | PIT | Rickard RakellPP from Sidney Crosby, Matt Grzelcyk | 3–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 19:35 | PIT | Rutger McGroartyPP from Ville Koivunen, Erik Karlsson | 4–4 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 2:12 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Jordan Kyrou | 4–5 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutger McGroarty R | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 19:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.22 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Dewar C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.05 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Conor Timmins D | 21:23 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 13:55 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 13:59 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 9:35 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 17:47 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 8:15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 7:44 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 11:24 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:21 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:08 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 15:00 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:29 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 24:39 | −0.53 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:25 | −2.44 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 18:01 | 2 | +1.42 | −0.06 | +1.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.05 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 22:30 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.76 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 22:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.14 | +0.60 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Nick Leddy D | 18:21 | +0.29 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 12:44 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:26 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:21 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 16:23 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 5:22 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 15:52 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:32 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 19:07 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:22 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:57 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 16:22 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.08 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:09 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 62:12 | −1.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.