COL beat CHI 3–2 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 5.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Necas scored on the power play at 19:49 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 3% to 49%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:39 | CHI | Ilya MikheyevSH from Frank Nazar, Connor Murphy | 0–1 | 52% → 70% |
| P2 8:17 | CHI | Connor Murphy from Connor Bedard, Ethan Del Mastro | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P3 9:17 | COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin | 1–2 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 19:49 | COL | Martin NecasPP from Brock Nelson, Cale Makar | 2–2 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 31:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.34 | +0.52 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:21 | +0.83 | +0.49 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +1.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 28:18 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.35 | −0.54 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.78 | |
| Martin Necas C | 22:35 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.12 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 26:36 | +0.31 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keaton Middleton D | 9:56 | +0.26 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:14 | +0.07 | +0.20 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 6:16 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 10:51 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 15:19 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 16:15 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:49 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:24 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:57 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:29 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 23:27 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.38 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 11:17 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:01 | +0.60 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Murphy D | 22:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.07 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:49 | +0.52 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:14 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.18 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 17:01 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 14:12 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 12:01 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 19:57 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 14:54 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:59 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 17:17 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Oliver Moore C | 12:05 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 13:03 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 23:37 | −0.44 | −0.47 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 9:56 | −0.56 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 22:40 | −0.57 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.32 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 25:45 | −0.58 | −0.57 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 14:52 | −0.61 | −0.13 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 23:58 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 64:42 | +0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.