MTL beat FLA 3–2 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 0:29 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:43 |  MTL | Josh Anderson from Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:37 |  FLA | Niko Mikkola from Anton Lundell | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 18:47 | FLA | Mackie SamoskevichPP from Seth Jones | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 19:51 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský | 2–2 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:29 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Mikkola D | 22:04 | 1 | +1.09 | −0.00 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 13:46 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 18:57 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:11 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 24:53 | +0.07 | +0.26 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 9:46 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:09 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 17:34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:28 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 0:34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 5:11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:17 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 10:42 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 16:03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:18 | −0.11 | +0.27 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 18:27 | −0.33 | +0.21 | −0.53 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 19:15 | −0.95 | −0.18 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:10 | −0.45 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:30 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.13 | +1.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 13:41 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:30 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:13 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:03 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 11:32 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 5:54 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 13:44 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 26:12 | 3 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:15 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 10:05 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:06 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 10:42 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 22:30 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:39 | −0.28 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 14:35 | −0.65 | −0.04 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:31 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 59:25 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.