CGY beat COL 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.7, COL 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adam Klapka scored at 11:29 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 16% to 48%. Dan Vladar saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:31 |  COL | Cale Makar from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 7:59 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Parker Kelly | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P3 10:57 |  CGY | Ryan Lomberg from Adam Klapka, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–2 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 11:29 | CGY | Adam Klapka from Ryan Lomberg, Kevin Rooney | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.20 | +0.64 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 13:54 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.78 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 12:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Joel Hanley D | 22:10 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:29 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 23:55 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 11:31 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 27:17 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 19:40 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 15:53 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:13 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 22:01 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 18:53 | −0.38 | +0.15 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:13 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 22:51 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 13:10 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 65:00 | +2.22 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 27:09 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.14 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 11:04 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.05 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 18:02 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 17:45 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 15:15 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:46 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 12:02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:26 | −0.06 | +0.20 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:57 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 10:09 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:38 | −0.12 | +0.24 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 20:04 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:28 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:06 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:41 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 12:49 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:02 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:00 | −1.29 | −0.09 | −0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:37 | +0.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.