Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2025-03-30 · Crypto.com Arena

1 – 8Final

LAK beat SJS 8–1. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Phillip Danault scored at 5:35 of the first, moving LAK’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Georgii Romanov allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.

Shots on goal
23 – 36
Expected goals
2.2 – 4.1
xG share
LAK 65%
Home-ice start
LAK 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

SJS goalLAK goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

SJSLAK

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

LAK
1 G, 1 A · 16:46 TOI
On-ice +0.15 · Finishing +0.80 · Penalties +0.40
+1.35
LAK
2 G, 0 A · 19:47 TOI
Finishing +1.08 · Penalties +0.20
+1.24
LAK
Warren Foegele
2 G, 0 A · 18:07 TOI
On-ice +0.12 · Finishing +1.09
+1.20

Rough nights

SJS
Georgii Romanov
60:00 TOI
GSAx −3.73
−3.73
LAK
0 G, 0 A · 17:57 TOI
Finishing −0.56
−0.55
LAK
0 G, 2 A · 16:12 TOI
Finishing −0.21 · Penalties −0.20
−0.44

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalSJS–LAKWin prob.
P1 5:35 LAKPhillip Danault
from Quinton Byfield, Trevor Moore
0–153% → 69%
P1 15:13 LAKAdrian KempePP
from Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty
0–271% → 84%
P2 4:52 SJSCam Lund
from Mario Ferraro
1–213% → 27%
P2 6:57 LAKTrevor Moore
from Anze Kopitar, Andrei Kuzmenko
1–373% → 87%
P2 13:31 LAKWarren FoegelePP
from Brandt Clarke, Quinton Byfield
1–490% → 97%
P2 19:03 LAKWarren Foegele
from Mikey Anderson, Drew Doughty
1–598% → 100%
P2 19:38 LAKAdrian Kempe
from Vladislav Gavrikov, Andrei Kuzmenko
1–6100% → 100%
P3 14:49 LAKAndrei Kuzmenko
from Anze Kopitar, Vladislav Gavrikov
1–7100% → 100%
P3 15:22 LAKTrevor Lewis
from Jacob Moverare, Jordan Spence
1–8100% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

SJS

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Cam Lund C13:321+0.65+0.06+0.80−0.01+0.00−0.20+0.00
Tyler Toffoli C15:57+0.25+0.06−0.01+0.00+0.01+0.20−0.01
Alexander Wennberg C19:14+0.09−0.07−0.01−0.01−0.00+0.20−0.01
Zack Ostapchuk C11:41+0.07+0.10−0.00−0.03+0.01+0.00−0.01
Timothy Liljegren D18:44+0.00−0.02+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Marc-Edouard Vlasic D15:10−0.01−0.00−0.02+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Lucas Carlsson D19:24−0.04+0.05−0.08+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Shakir Mukhamadullin D25:12−0.04−0.05+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Luca Cagnoni D16:41−0.07+0.02−0.08−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Macklin Celebrini C16:00−0.09+0.06−0.13+0.01−0.01+0.00−0.02
Ty Dellandrea C12:33−0.10−0.06−0.00−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.02
Collin Graf R17:04−0.16−0.08−0.09−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
William Eklund L16:19−0.17−0.03−0.13−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Will Smith C14:23−0.19+0.03−0.20−0.00−0.01+0.00−0.02
Barclay Goodrow C17:00−0.19+0.04−0.17−0.02+0.00+0.00−0.04
Noah Gregor L9:53−0.26−0.03−0.01−0.01−0.01−0.20+0.00
Carl Grundstrom R11:10−0.31+0.08−0.39−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Mario Ferraro D20:221−0.40−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.40+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Georgii Romanov G60:00−3.73

LAK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Trevor Moore L16:4611+1.35+0.15+0.80−0.01+0.01+0.40+0.00
Adrian Kempe R19:472+1.24−0.04+1.08+0.01−0.01+0.20+0.00
Warren Foegele L18:072+1.20+0.12+1.09−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Phillip Danault C17:071+1.06+0.07+0.88−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.12
Trevor Lewis C10:191+1.05−0.05+0.91−0.01+0.01+0.20+0.00
Andrei Kuzmenko L18:0112+0.36−0.04+0.38+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Anze Kopitar C17:553+0.08−0.05−0.00+0.04+0.02+0.00+0.07
Jacob Moverare D12:381+0.03+0.03+0.01−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Joel Edmundson D17:42+0.00−0.00+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jordan Spence D15:211−0.02−0.01+0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Vladislav Gavrikov D19:132−0.07−0.05+0.01−0.03+0.01+0.00+0.00
Brandt Clarke D18:111−0.10+0.11−0.22−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Samuel Helenius C10:49−0.11−0.07−0.00−0.02+0.02+0.00−0.04
Quinton Byfield R19:352−0.23+0.04−0.46−0.00+0.02+0.20−0.02
Jeff Malott L16:22−0.38−0.01−0.35−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Mikey Anderson D11:311−0.43−0.06+0.01−0.01+0.03−0.40+0.00
Drew Doughty D16:122−0.44−0.02−0.21−0.01+0.00−0.20+0.00
Kevin Fiala L17:57−0.55+0.01−0.56+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
David Rittich G60:00+0.64

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.