TOR beat ANA 3–2. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Steven Lorentz scored at 11:35 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:24 | TOR | Max Domi from Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 6:29 | TOR | Mitch Marner unassisted | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 7:50 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Olen Zellweger, Cutter Gauthier | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P3 2:16 | ANA | Sam ColangeloPP from Trevor Zegras, Jackson LaCombe | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 11:35 | TOR | Steven Lorentz from David Kampf, Simon Benoit | 3–2 | 48% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 12:58 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.03 | +0.82 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 20:02 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.69 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 8:58 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 19:56 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 16:53 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 7:07 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 17:26 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 13:33 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 20:13 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:29 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:55 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:55 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 14:43 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:47 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:17 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 17:09 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 19:51 | −0.63 | +0.10 | −0.52 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 59:53 | +0.78 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Colangelo R | 17:44 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.20 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 20:17 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.12 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 17:55 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:05 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 9:56 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 12:51 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 15:45 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 11:03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 19:59 | −0.10 | +0.20 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:58 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:46 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 12:44 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:19 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:34 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 21:17 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.23 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 19:39 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:35 | −0.30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:51 | −0.43 | −0.05 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 57:42 | −0.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.