CAR beat NYI 6–4. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dmitry Orlov scored at 9:19 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Marcus Hogberg allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:41 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Eric Robinson, Tyson Jost | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:54 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Jordan Martinook | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 6:10 | NYI | Pierre Engvall from Adam Pelech | 1–2 | 17% → 31% |
| P1 11:27 | NYI | Kyle PalmieriPP from Noah Dobson, Bo Horvat | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:37 | NYI | Pierre Engvall unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 8:35 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Taylor Hall | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 17:29 | CAR | Seth JarvisSH from Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin | 3–4 | 52% → 75% |
| P3 4:05 | NYI | Anders Lee from Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 9:19 | CAR | Dmitry Orlov from Andrei Svechnikov, Tyson Jost | 4–5 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 17:14 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Sebastian Aho | 4–6 | 92% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:21 | 2 | +1.70 | −0.01 | +1.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 21:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Boqvist D | 15:53 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:06 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 24:07 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:42 | −0.09 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 8:41 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 10:10 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:57 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:50 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 9:18 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 11:30 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:58 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 11:59 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 17:17 | −0.34 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 20:32 | −0.39 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:22 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.11 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.09 | −0.65 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 58:09 | −2.22 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:33 | 2 | +1.24 | +0.30 | +0.96 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:00 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.14 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.38 | +0.29 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Stankoven C | 13:49 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 14:40 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.00 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 17:05 | +0.36 | +0.36 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 14:02 | +0.26 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:02 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:45 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 11:45 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 7:20 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 12:20 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 21:33 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 16:19 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:31 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:15 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 13:31 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:00 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.