EDM beat CGY 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.5, EDM 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 2:25 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:32 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Nazem Kadri, Brayden Pachal | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 16:20 |  EDM | Viktor Arvidsson from Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 7:55 | CGY | Brayden Pachal from Nazem Kadri | 2–1 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 16:48 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse | 2–2 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 2:25 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Jeff Skinner | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Pachal D | 12:08 | 1 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.10 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:34 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.64 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Bean D | 13:02 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:08 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:31 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:38 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 23:34 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 18:52 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 9:16 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 7:48 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 13:59 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:39 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:35 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:26 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 20:03 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:08 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.21 | −0.60 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.07 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:32 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:22 | −0.77 | −0.18 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 62:25 | −0.52 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:24 | 2 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.11 | +1.00 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.16 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:30 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.37 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 14:56 | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 18:01 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 12:41 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 22:16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:43 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:03 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 16:31 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 10:16 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 5:21 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:50 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:40 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 11:00 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:52 | −0.28 | +0.23 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:02 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 20:27 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 62:25 | +0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.