ANA beat NYR 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 3.6, ANA 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mason McTavish scored at 0:59 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:20 |  NYR | Adam Fox from Artemi Panarin, K'Andre Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 16:55 | ANA | Alex KillornSH from Leo Carlsson | 1–1 | 34% → 52% |
| P1 18:48 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Will Cuylle, Alexis Lafrenière | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 0:14 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from J.T. Miller | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P3 2:22 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Olen Zellweger, Trevor Zegras | 3–2 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 4:35 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 4–2 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 14:12 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 18:15 | ANA | Olen Zellweger from Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:59 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Jackson LaCombe, Cutter Gauthier | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox D | 29:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.09 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:04 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.18 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 16:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brennan Othmann L | 9:04 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:48 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Berard L | 8:49 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 9:10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:05 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:26 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 15:46 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:55 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 16:39 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 13:59 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:20 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:15 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:06 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:15 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.48 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 65:59 | −1.36 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:37 | 1 | 3 | +0.72 | +0.14 | +0.63 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Alex Killorn L | 18:16 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.21 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 15:29 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.15 | +0.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 14:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.08 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Olen Zellweger D | 18:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.12 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:36 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 20:39 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 15:50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 8:41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 12:20 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Colangelo R | 15:38 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:29 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:12 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:27 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:40 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 20:44 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:19 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.08 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:01 | −0.94 | +0.07 | −0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:59 | −0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.