VGK beat CHI 5–3. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Dorofeyev scored on the power play at 16:49 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Spencer Knight allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:15 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Ethan Del Mastro, Ilya Mikheyev | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:41 |  VGK | Mark Stone from Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 7:34 | VGK | Victor Olofsson from William Karlsson, Keegan Kolesar | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 16:14 | CHI | Ryan DonatoPP from Joe Veleno, Wyatt Kaiser | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:29 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Ilya Mikheyev, Connor Bedard | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 2:06 | VGK | Victor Olofsson from Reilly Smith, William Karlsson | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 16:49 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Noah Hanifin, William Karlsson | 4–3 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 19:16 | VGK | Brett HowdenEN from Mark Stone | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:36 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.02 | +1.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 18:55 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.26 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 14:55 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.07 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:51 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 14:19 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 17:50 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:42 | 3 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:24 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:25 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:22 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 11:08 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 18:57 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:31 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 14:11 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:08 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:10 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | −1.32 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donato C | 19:55 | 3 | +2.64 | +0.11 | +2.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.07 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 21:27 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 20:13 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 17:53 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 9:12 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 19:23 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 19:32 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 9:15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 12:55 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 17:42 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:18 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 16:24 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 18:28 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:33 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 16:28 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:59 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artyom Levshunov D | 20:21 | −0.41 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 58:15 | −2.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.