CBJ beat VAN 7–6 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 2.9, CBJ 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Aatu Räty scored at 17:31 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 7% to 49%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:51 | VAN | Linus KarlssonPP from Kiefer Sherwood, Conor Garland | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:35 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Quinn Hughes, Pius Suter | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 13:26 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Brock Boeser, Pius Suter | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 0:34 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Denton Mateychuk, Erik Gudbranson | 3–1 | 7% → 20% |
| P2 4:54 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Sean Monahan, Dante Fabbro | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 8:44 | CBJ | Dante Fabbro from Cole Sillinger, Mathieu Olivier | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:23 | VAN | Tyler MyersSH from Kiefer Sherwood, Pius Suter | 4–3 | 46% → 68% |
| P3 6:42 | VAN | Aatu Räty from Dakota Joshua, Quinn Hughes | 5–3 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 7:03 | CBJ | Denton Mateychuk from Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli | 5–4 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 16:46 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP from Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski | 5–5 | 11% → 51% |
| P3 17:08 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Dante Fabbro, Justin Danforth | 5–6 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 17:31 | VAN | Aatu Räty from Dakota Joshua, Kiefer Sherwood | 6–6 | 7% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aatu Räty C | 12:27 | 2 | +1.58 | +0.02 | +1.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.11 | +0.76 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 |
| Linus Karlsson C | 9:18 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.08 | +0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 16:19 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:58 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 20:20 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Nils Aman C | 9:14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:24 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.34 | −0.44 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 10:55 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:42 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 24:20 | 3 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 14:34 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:48 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:07 | −0.29 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:19 | 3 | −0.37 | +0.19 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 10:25 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.07 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 65:00 | −2.68 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:54 | 1 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.16 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 21:30 | 2 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.07 | +1.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 17:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.04 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.10 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Kent Johnson C | 19:47 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 21:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.18 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 14:37 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 13:39 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:40 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.20 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 9:29 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:50 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.17 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:02 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 9:22 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 29:49 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.37 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 21:37 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 17:06 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 19:05 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 65:00 | −1.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.