FLA beat UTA 2–1 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Bennett scored at 4:18 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:28 | FLA | Sam BennettPP from Aleksander Barkov, Mackie Samoskevich | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P3 1:55 | UTA | Sean Durzi from Barrett Hayton | 1–1 | 22% → 48% |
| OT 4:18 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Brad Marchand, Gustav Forsling | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 25:04 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.17 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 16:44 | +0.31 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.05 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 6:17 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 11:28 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:47 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 12:43 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 22:12 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 10:28 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:13 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| John Marino D | 23:31 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 12:34 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:11 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:10 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 17:49 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 28:27 | −0.61 | −0.58 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 18:42 | −0.68 | −0.12 | −0.56 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:57 | −0.77 | −0.45 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 64:18 | +1.21 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bennett C | 21:36 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.38 | +1.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.06 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 19:50 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:38 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:37 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 24:29 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.29 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 11:11 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:58 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 15:13 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:23 | +0.02 | +0.23 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 16:30 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.47 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 10:39 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 9:04 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:06 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:21 | −0.19 | +0.22 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:51 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 24:21 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 6:29 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:58 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 63:58 | +0.77 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.