SJS beat TOR 6–5 in a shootout. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored on the power play at 19:46 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 3% to 49%. Joseph Woll allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:50 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Lucas Carlsson, Timothy Liljegren | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:40 |  TOR | William NylanderPP from Matthew Knies, John Tavares | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 17:45 | SJS | Collin GrafSH from Mario Ferraro | 1–2 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 1:39 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Tyler Toffoli, Timothy Liljegren | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 4:46 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner | 2–3 | 14% → 27% |
| P2 13:18 | SJS | William Eklund unassisted | 2–4 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 15:13 | TOR | Scott Laughton from David Kampf, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3–4 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 3:02 | SJS | Tyler ToffoliPP from William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini | 3–5 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 19:01 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Mitch Marner | 4–5 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:46 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews | 5–5 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 22:26 | 2 | +2.16 | +0.20 | +1.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 12:28 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.04 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Auston Matthews C | 25:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.28 | +0.47 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.39 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 24:51 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:52 | +0.12 | +0.25 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 15:38 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 9:41 | −0.01 | +0.43 | −0.32 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:33 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 11:37 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 12:24 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 23:11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:11 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 9:38 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 25:26 | 3 | −0.16 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.33 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 22:06 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:45 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 15:16 | −0.56 | +0.24 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 62:23 | −3.53 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.00 | +1.26 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Will Smith C | 19:07 | +0.88 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 23:16 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.15 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.78 | |
| William Eklund L | 22:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.10 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Collin Graf R | 19:55 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.52 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:54 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:43 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.42 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Cam Lund C | 11:06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:24 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:44 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Giles R | 11:59 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Luca Cagnoni D | 14:23 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 9:22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 23:13 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:45 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 17:50 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 25:26 | −0.79 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 65:00 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.