STL beat NSH 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (STL 1.8, NSH 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Holloway scored at 12:19 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 49% to 83%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:48 |  NSH | Fedor Svechkov from Michael Bunting, Andreas Englund | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:16 | NSH | Brady SkjeiPP from Luke Evangelista, Kieffer Bellows | 0–2 | 71% → 83% |
| P2 10:35 |  STL | Dylan Holloway from Robert Thomas | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 11:57 | STL | Cam Fowler from Jake Neighbours, Brayden Schenn | 2–2 | 15% → 48% |
| P3 12:19 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Robert Thomas, Nick Leddy | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Holloway L | 19:38 | 2 | +1.81 | +0.06 | +1.53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 20:56 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:35 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:06 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 16:30 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 14:04 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 23:53 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 9:42 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:47 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:41 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:06 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 14:43 | −0.12 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 14:53 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:00 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 15:40 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:00 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:20 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 59:54 | −0.53 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 26:16 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.05 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:31 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 16:03 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:53 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 13:39 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:47 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 14:50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 11:59 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 22:55 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 10:55 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 10:22 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:56 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:07 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 8:53 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 23:40 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:26 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 17:38 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:38 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:33 | −0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.