NSH beat CAR 3–1. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Michael Bunting scored on the power play at 5:14 of the first, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Juuse Saros saved 3.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:14 |  NSH | Michael BuntingPP from Kieffer Bellows, Brady Skjei | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 4:01 | NSH | Luke Evangelista from Filip Forsberg, Marc Del Gaizo | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 6:02 |  CAR | Taylor HallPP from Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 12:48 | NSH | Luke Evangelista from Marc Del Gaizo, Ryan O'Reilly | 3–1 | 83% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:07 | 2 | +1.35 | −0.01 | +1.36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 16:41 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.03 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 21:02 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:29 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:33 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:16 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 14:53 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 11:02 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Barron D | 21:34 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 13:25 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 17:40 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 22:15 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:23 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 11:43 | −0.37 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 24:52 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 13:30 | −0.47 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 16:32 | −0.52 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +3.18 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 19:18 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.70 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 18:04 | +0.37 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 19:31 | +0.29 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:36 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 8:36 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 12:48 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 9:34 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:26 | −0.06 | +0.32 | −0.41 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:26 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:27 | −0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:23 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:35 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:45 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:40 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:01 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.23 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 14:54 | −0.50 | +0.10 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 19:04 | −0.54 | +0.27 | −0.82 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 56:38 | −1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.