CGY beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nazem Kadri scored at 3:53 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Marcus Hogberg allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:36 | CGY | Matt Coronato from Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:46 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Tony DeAngelo, Simon Holmstrom | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:41 | NYI | Marc Gatcomb from Maxim Tsyplakov, Noah Dobson | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 6:03 | CGY | Matt Coronato from Jonathan Huberdeau, Rasmus Andersson | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 17:09 | NYI | Kyle MacLean from Maxim Tsyplakov, Noah Dobson | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 17:38 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau from Rasmus Andersson, Kevin Bahl | 3–3 | 7% → 49% |
| OT 3:53 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Rasmus Andersson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Coronato R | 21:59 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.15 | +1.64 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 23:23 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.06 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.09 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 23:09 | 1 | 2 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:38 | 3 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 5:16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 17:42 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 5:11 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 22:45 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 5:56 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:10 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 18:18 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 12:22 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 17:33 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 22:33 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 15:59 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 20:20 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:00 | −0.43 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 19:32 | −0.50 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 63:46 | +0.14 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gatcomb C | 11:21 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.21 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 20:27 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:53 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.21 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:16 | +0.29 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 15:52 | +0.15 | +0.25 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:14 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.37 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:33 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 23:04 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 11:35 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:04 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:16 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 11:16 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:13 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:27 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.29 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 23:19 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 21:32 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 19:43 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:34 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 63:53 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.