NYR beat VAN 5–3. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonny Brodzinski scored at 15:47 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:51 |  VAN | Dakota Joshua from Quinn Hughes, Nils Aman | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 11:03 | NYR | Adam Fox from Braden Schneider, Brennan Othmann | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 1:39 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from J.T. Miller, Alexis Lafrenière | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 11:22 | VAN | Drew O'Connor from Nils Aman, Victor Mancini | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 12:40 | NYR | K'Andre Miller from Vincent Trocheck, Will Borgen | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 15:10 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Jake DeBrusk | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 15:47 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Alexis Lafrenière, Carson Soucy | 3–4 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 19:43 | NYR | J.T. MillerEN from Adam Fox | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 20:01 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.15 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:08 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.69 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:19 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.08 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:13 | +0.36 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 15:19 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 10:29 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.06 | |
| Conor Garland R | 20:12 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 20:10 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 7:50 | +0.10 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Victor Mancini D | 14:33 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 7:03 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 12:22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 14:32 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 20:19 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:42 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 17:50 | −0.27 | +0.06 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:25 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.35 | −0.76 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:00 | 1 | −0.77 | +0.18 | −0.97 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 57:33 | −2.66 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 15:00 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.16 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.10 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:57 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.21 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:58 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 16:22 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brennan Othmann L | 8:17 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 17:26 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:56 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 12:34 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:11 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 15:34 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 17:34 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 14:58 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:56 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:02 | 1 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 9:17 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 9:07 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.