PIT beat CBJ 6–3. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgeni Malkin scored at 5:28 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:28 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Philip Tomasino, Connor Dewar | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:51 | PIT | Noel Acciari from Blake Lizotte | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 14:07 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Denton Mateychuk, Ivan Provorov | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 14:53 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 1:35 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Mathieu Olivier, Damon Severson | 2–3 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 8:15 | PIT | Bokondji Imama from Danton Heinen, Kevin Hayes | 2–4 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 15:31 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Matt Grzelcyk | 2–5 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 3:45 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Sean Kuraly, Egor Chinakhov | 3–5 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 18:03 | PIT | Bryan RustEN from Rickard Rakell, Alex Nedeljkovic | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.14 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 12:51 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.08 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:49 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 14:20 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:08 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 12:07 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 17:17 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 13:12 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 14:42 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:40 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 15:22 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 12:43 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 29:15 | −0.37 | +0.20 | −0.59 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 15:56 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:40 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 16:31 | −0.68 | +0.12 | −0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 58:19 | −1.75 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari C | 14:07 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.08 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.13 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.15 | +0.70 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Bokondji Imama L | 7:50 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.01 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 10:20 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 22:34 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 13:43 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 16:42 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Joona Koppanen L | 15:25 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:05 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 20:51 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 10:37 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:36 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:56 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:07 | 1 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.19 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Philip Tomasino C | 14:44 | 1 | −0.74 | +0.03 | −0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:00 | +2.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.