STL beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Philip Broberg scored at 3:42 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:47 |  STL | Zachary Bolduc from Oskar Sundqvist, Mathieu Joseph | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 1:11 |  VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Filip Hronek, Marcus Pettersson | 1–1 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 6:35 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Nils Hoglander, Elias Pettersson | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 9:28 | STL | Tyler Tucker from Brayden Schenn | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 9:52 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Jordan Kyrou, Tyler Tucker | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 19:56 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes | 3–3 | 3% → 48% |
| OT 3:42 | STL | Philip Broberg from Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 19:56 | 2 | +1.34 | −0.36 | +1.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 15:58 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.14 | +0.92 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:37 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 16:57 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Aman C | 10:58 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 10:21 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 14:08 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 10:26 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 19:44 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 15:52 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:41 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:37 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 18:44 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:22 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:32 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:18 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.36 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 19:06 | −0.53 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 27:14 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.32 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 62:17 | −1.34 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:57 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.31 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Philip Broberg D | 24:57 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.40 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 15:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.13 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:36 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.00 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:57 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:44 | +0.23 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 15:46 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 21:42 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:16 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:59 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 19:42 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:02 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:48 | −0.05 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:33 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.26 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 12:09 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:23 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 21:46 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.48 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 63:42 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.