CGY beat NJD 5–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau scored at 16:40 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 49% to 90%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:09 |  NJD | Nico Hischier from Stefan Noesen, Johnathan Kovacevic | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:25 | NJD | Erik Haula from Brian Dumoulin | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 11:58 | CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Jonathan Huberdeau, Morgan Frost | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 19:32 | NJD | Paul Cotter from Nico Hischier, Brenden Dillon | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 6:50 | CGY | Connor Zary from Martin Pospisil, Joel Hanley | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 15:40 | CGY | Daniil Miromanov from Blake Coleman, Joel Farabee | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 16:40 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 90% |
| P3 19:48 | CGY | Nazem KadriEN unassisted | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Miromanov D | 10:42 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.06 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.17 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Matt Coronato R | 17:34 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.69 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 21:50 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Zary C | 21:57 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:33 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 14:11 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 12:18 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:26 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:30 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 12:48 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:43 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 15:18 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:51 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 10:43 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:28 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 7:57 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | +0.09 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 15:46 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.10 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 10:46 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.12 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 22:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.12 | +0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Luke Hughes D | 22:58 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 20:30 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 13:24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:52 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:32 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 9:31 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:38 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 24:42 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:22 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 18:38 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:44 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:36 | −0.62 | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:55 | −0.63 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:01 | −0.69 | −0.03 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 57:48 | −1.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.