TOR beat COL 2–1. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Steven Lorentz scored short-handed at 2:53 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 51% to 78%. Joseph Woll saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:28 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 2:48 |  COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 2:53 | TOR | Steven LorentzSH from Simon Benoit | 1–2 | 51% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:12 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.12 | +0.27 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 16:53 | +0.10 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 15:48 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:42 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:32 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:17 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 7:29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 15:28 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:39 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:23 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 8:22 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 10:33 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:09 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:45 | −0.15 | +0.26 | −0.21 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:26 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.50 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:20 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:05 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 11:30 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:21 | +0.75 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:24 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.05 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 25:42 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 22:02 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:22 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 15:36 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 8:39 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 18:15 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 13:52 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 9:31 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 23:41 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 12:29 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 11:13 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Domi C | 11:23 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:11 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 19:29 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:41 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:08 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 20:26 | −0.38 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 60:00 | +2.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.