NYI beat PIT 4–2. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pierre Engvall scored at 13:08 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 49% to 84%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:40 |  PIT | Joona Koppanen from Vladislav Kolyachonok, Kris Letang | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 19:45 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Conor Timmins, Ryan Graves | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 0:17 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri unassisted | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 5:34 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 13:08 | NYI | Pierre Engvall from Noah Dobson, Hudson Fasching | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
| P3 18:28 | NYI | Simon HolmstromEN from Kyle Palmieri | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson D | 24:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.13 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.11 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:00 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:57 | +0.28 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 26:00 | +0.19 | +0.29 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:28 | +0.17 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 24:05 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:30 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 14:10 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:49 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:38 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 20:38 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 10:28 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 12:27 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 10:54 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 13:37 | −0.48 | +0.07 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:27 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.14 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:52 | −0.29 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joona Koppanen L | 13:01 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.26 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:45 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 19:26 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 12:01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 11:37 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:44 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 12:34 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 19:00 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 15:52 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 6:06 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 21:34 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 13:53 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:47 | −0.18 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 17:43 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:29 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:26 | −0.54 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:43 | −0.66 | −0.38 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:15 | +0.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.